The economy,
for buying in Vallarta.
Banxico cut its rate to 6.25% and the dollar is at 18.63 pesos. Every month we read Banxico's figures, its rate decisions and its survey of about 40 economists from banks and consultancies, and explain what they mean for buyers and sellers.
$18.63
Dollar (FIX)
pesos per dollar, November 6, 2026
6.25%
Banxico rate
cut by 0.25 on November 5
3.62%
Annual inflation
first half of October
It cut its rate to 6.25% and said it sees value in “keeping the rate at the level reached for a prolonged time”.
3 votes to 2. Galia Borja and Jonathan Heath voted to keep it at 6.50%.
Quote translated from Banxico's Spanish announcement.
- Inflation rose from 3.42% to 3.62% between September and the first half of October, driven by non-core prices; core inflation eased to 3.78%.
- Banxico still expects inflation to reach its 3% target in the fourth quarter of 2027.
- The peso weakened since the previous decision. Banxico sees upside risks to inflation, among them a further fall in the peso.
- It sees no demand pressure in the economy and expects the exchange rate's effect on prices to be limited.
The next two years.
Median forecasts from Banxico's survey of October 2026, answered October 19–29 by economists at banks such as BBVA, Banorte, Santander, Citi and JP Morgan, published November 3, 2026. Answered before the November 5 rate cut. In July's survey they expected 17.88 pesos per dollar for the end of 2026.
| End 2026 | End 2027 | |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar (pesos per dollar) | 18.39 | 18.64 |
| Banxico rate | 6.50% | 6.50% |
| Inflation | 3.88% | 3.85% |
| Economic growth | 1.50% | 1.83% |
More optimistic than last month.
Last month: 46%
Last month: 39%
Last month: 46%
Last month: 10%
What could slow growth.
Share of answers when each analyst names the three main factors for the next six months.
For you, in plain words.
If you buy with dollars
Today each dollar buys 18.63 pesos, a little more than the 18.39 analysts expect for December. A 5 million peso property costs about US$268,389 today; at 18.39 it would be US$271,887.
If you buy with a peso mortgage
Banxico cut its rate sooner than analysts expected and says it plans to hold it there for a while. That can make credit cheaper little by little, but each bank sets its own mortgage rate: compare the fixed rate and the total annual cost (CAT) before you sign.
If your savings are in pesos
With inflation near 3.6% a year, money that doesn't grow loses buying power. That is why many people use real estate to protect their wealth over the long term.
If you are selling
Analysts don't expect big moves in the dollar or the rate over the next 12 months. In a steady market it helps to start at a realistic price and review it with data.
Sources: Banco de México indicators as of November 6, 2026; monetary policy announcement of November 5, 2026; Survey of Private Sector Economists, October 2026. This page is for information only and is not financial or investment advice. Photo: Alfonso21, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.