AMPI Riviera Nayarit Leader Says Oversupply Is Cutting Property Prices 10 to 12 Percent

Excess inventory is pushing property prices in the region down by 10 to 12 percent, according to Miguel Tejeda, president of AMPI Riviera Nayarit, the local real estate association. Vallarta Daily published the statement on October 19 and raised the practical question for buyers and sellers: whether those reductions are showing up in closed sales or only in asking prices.

The distinction matters. The same outlet's September market report describes a market in which fewer properties are selling, asking prices remain uneven and some buyers are gaining room to negotiate. The pages reviewed do not say what period the 10 to 12 percent decline covers or which areas and property types account for it, so the figure should be read as an estimate from an industry leader and not as a price index. For owners thinking of selling, the number suggests that an opening price well above what the market is paying can stretch the time on the market.

On the financing side, relief is not close. Citi Mexico's expectations survey, published Tuesday, October 20, shows that most analysts expect the Bank of Mexico to hold its benchmark rate at 6.50 percent this year and next, as reported by Revista Fortuna. El Financiero adds that the minutes of the central bank's last meeting showed a divided board, that some members see room to cut, and that a small group of analysts is betting on surprise cuts in the final stretch of 2026. Fortuna also notes that analysts expect annual inflation of 3.63 percent in October, up from 3.45 percent in September.

A steady benchmark rate does not mean a cheap mortgage. According to the comparison site bancario.com.mx, official fixed-rate mortgage examples from the major banks in October show an average total annual cost, before VAT, of 10.7 to 13.0 percent. The Banxico indicator, which compares all lenders using the same case of 800,000 pesos over 15 years, came in at 13.80 percent in June. The site says mortgages have fallen only 1.5 to 2 points even as the benchmark rate has come down further, and that Banxico decides again on November 5. That is a secondary source, so buyers should confirm any figure with the lender before making a decision.

For foreign buyers, the currency backdrop is another number to watch. El Financiero reports that the interest rate gap between Mexico and the United States is at its lowest level on record, a factor that has made the peso less attractive, and the survey cited by Fortuna projects an exchange rate of 18.20 pesos per dollar at year-end.